Introduction:
Sudan’s enduring instability is linked to several factors including structural economic fragmentation and logistical dependency, leaving its national supply chain vulnerable to internal conflicts. Despite its strategic geographical location at the confluence of the White and Blue Niles in Khartoum, Sudan has failed to utilize the River Nile as an effective artery for Inland Water Transport (IWT). This failure, evidenced by aging infrastructure, vast unutilized agricultural lands has limited the country's capacity for economic integration and food security.

From the west, in the Danube river system, and to the east, China's Yangtze river corridor, these successful models demonstrate how IWT can transform fragile economies into stable, connected and competitive regions.

This article argues that developing the Nile corridor for IWT represents a strategic non-military investment essential to Sudan's long-term future security and development. Modeled on the success of these international peers, this investment could directly address food insecurity, strengthen national cohesion, and transform the Nile into a source of shared prosperity for Sudan and its neighbors.

Inland Water Transport: A Strategic Pillar of Economic Security
Inland water transport (IWT) refers to the movement of people, goods and strategic cargo along navigable rivers and domestic waterways. IWT offers critical climate and economic security advantages: its carbon emissions are lower compared to road freight, which contribute to around 40% of total transport emissions. primary operational benefit is IWT's ability to move large volumes of shipments, drastically reducing the reliance on congested road networks. A single IWT vessel can transport hundreds of containers, an equivalent capacity to hundreds of trucks. This consolidation creates substantial economies of scale, leading to transport costs per ton-kilometer that are several times lower than those of trucking.

Sudan holds some of the largest agricultural lands in Africa, yet their utilization represents a national security crisis, compromising food sovereignty and fueling domestic and regional stability. The historical failure of grand irrigation systems such as the Gezira Scheme, one of the world’s largest irrigation projects stems not from financial and infrastructure decay but from chronic mismanagement and inappropriate policies.

To reverse the collapse of the scheme, Sudan must move beyond fixing the technical deficits towards fundamental institutional reform. The Yangtze River provides an excellent model for this issue through:

Unified Market Access: Sudan must establish a unified market access system across its states. This process will remove local administrative barriers to free movement of labor, capital and agricultural technology, thereby intensifying economic revival.

Decentralization and Integration: Adopting the Yangtze's principles of decentralization and integration would allow local authority to establish consistent standards within a transparent, fair and open market environment. This policy reform is essential to reversing decades of the decline, creating economic security and stability for the local farmers, turning agricultural prosperity into an asset for domestic cohesion.

Industrial Resilience and Ecological Security
The IWT corridor's low cost, high-capacity logistics, can intensify the industrial development along the Nile, transforming the area into an economic hub that creates mass employment, a key deterrent against armed recruitment. Experience from the Danube and Yangtze basins confirms ITW's crucial role in supporting resource-intensive industries. The Danube for example is a logical transport route for resource-intensive industries from mechanical engineering to steel. However, this industrial expansion must be governed by strict ecological protection policies.

The massive industrialization around China Yangtze, which once accounted for 44% of its carbon emissions serve as a warning. Research shows the industrial upgrading and energy transitions are non-linear: emissions may initially fall, rise again during the expansion (middle stage) and finally decline again in the mature clean energy stage. Sudan must avoid repeating this environmentally and economically costly "middle stage". By immediately investing in clean energy sustainable industries rather than entering into the high emission (dirty) stage. Accordingly, Sudan can position the Nile
corridor as a low carbon economic hub, securing its environmental and economic future.

The Red Sea Gateway: Port Sudan a Strategic Checkpoint:
Port Sudan, strategically positioned on the Red Sea, serves as Sudan's principal maritime gateway and a critical logistics checkpoints connecting Africa into world's most vital trade including the Suez Canal and the major hubs of the Arabian Peninsula. Its operational capacity is not just an economic metric; it's a vital factor for national economic security and regional trade efficiency.

However, the port is compromised by chronic inefficiency and congestion, ranking among one of the least productive ports in Africa. Operational deficiencies constitute security vulnerability such as the container dwell times exceeding global standards by more than fourfold, crane productivity severely depressed, and truck cycle times are higher. While the handling costs are often low, these delays render the port unattractive, translating into national revenue loss and dependency on external logistic chains. The failure to modernize Port Sudan undermines both import flows and bulks exports transferred through the IWT corridor and acts as a structural bottleneck.

Modernization must be a strategic priority focused on resilience and efficiency. According to Mr.Mahmoud Elhibir, a senior maritime transport at UN ESCWA in United Nation ESCWA, the country must prioritize upgrading its existing terminals technologically to meet international container standards and adopt advanced tools for operational fluidity. This approach offers both a learning curve and immediate capacity gain when constructing a new port.

Crucially, labor stability is a security concern as the port operations are sensitive to labor unrest. Previous blockades have paralyzed national supply chains; accordingly, Sudan must revamp the labor environment through health coverage, fair wage, continuous career development and safety measures. This would directly enhance productivity and mitigate any disruption risks caused by internal tensions.

The true value of Port Sudan is realized when integrated with the Nile IWT corridor, as the absence of a unified transport network undermines economic and national security. Such integration would secure both Sudan’s domestic national supply chain and position the country as a trusted regional trade conduit, ensuring a win-win outcome for both the regional and international partners.

An opportunity for cooperation rather than contestation:
The Nile Basin remains a critical geopolitical fault line, where the development of water resources often becomes zero-sum-security conflict. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) exemplifies this tension, between the downstream nations, such as Egypt expressing concerns about water security and Sudan emphasizing safety and operational control. This long-standing antagonism is between the colonial era treaties and the contested Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA).

Sudan's geographical positioning as a middle-state offers a unique diplomatic asset, this strategic window allows Khartoum to transform the status of contestation into one of economic cooperation.
The operational success of the Danube River Protection Convention (DRPC) provides a useful legal and institutional model to Nile riparian countries to shift their long disputes to support a mutual and sustainable water-sharing framework. Sudan is well-placed to lead an initiative to depoliticize the Nile, and establish a framework accepted by all Nile basin countries focusing on shared economic interests through IWT and commercial exchange.

By doing this, the Nile could become a viable strategic economic artery, connecting Port Sudan on the Red Sea with the African interior and global market. This transformation creates deep security interdependence by:

Guaranteeing interior stability: Generating mass economic opportunities, supporting fair competition to address the root cause of internal conflict.

Fostering Data Diplomacy: Conducting continuous joint research and monitoring of the river basin, with share transparent data -sharing system that provide an early warning system against natural crisis such as flooding.

Challenges:
Internal Security and Policy Adoption Risk: Sudan’s internal unrest and deep political fragmentation actively undermine prosperity and stability. The ongoing war hinders construction, destroys existing infrastructure and redirects fiscal priority toward the war economy, limiting reconstruction. Political fragmentation on the other hand reduces the likelihood of adopting and sustaining complex, long term national policies like IWT.

Administrative Decay: Colonial-era inherited administrative system remains ill-suited to the demands of modern statecraft, especially in terms of complex infrastructure development. This outdated system lacks the efficiency and transparency to manage large scale foreign and private investment partnerships.

Financial Vulnerability: The IWT project requires substantial and long-term investment: this necessitates a complete reform of Sudan's economic policies to secure stable funding sources, as reliance solely on unstable domestic revenue or external aid create a financial vulnerability.

Lack of homogeneity: While the project aims to foster regional cooperation, the current geopolitical environment presents a real challenge, unlike the Danube basin which enjoys a relative degree of economic and political homogeneity, the Nile Basin is marked by pronounced heterogeneity.

Recommendation:
Inclusive Governance and Institutional Reform: Ensuring inclusive governance through active engagement of local community, regional authorities, and civil society stakeholders is essential for rebuilding trust between the state and citizens. To address Sudan's political fragmentation, a comprehensive national dialogue is required to represent the full spectrum of Sudanese society rather than being confined to political elites or specific groups. Such a process will help avert the historical patterns that fueled the conflict and instability.

In parallel, adopting Decentralized governance will reduce center-peripheral tension by granting regional administrations autonomy in decision-making and resource allocation. A robust Security Sector Reform (SSR) process must be initiated to integrate all armed groups under a unified national army; this step is crucial to prevent any parallel military or other non-state armed group. Finally, Sudan must establish independent public institutions and oversight bodies to implement national policies transparently, as this institutional independence is essential to ensure policies continuity

Administrative Reform and Technology Integration: Institutional collapse constitutes a direct security threat. Addressing it requires a comprehensive reform to dismantle and replace outdated structure with transparent, technology-driven systems. The implementation of advanced technology including AI models in key administrations ( e.g customs) is essential for streamlining operations, combating systemic corruption, ensuring transparency and efficiency.

Secure Funding and Blended Finance Approach: To overcome the financial stability a blend of public investment, with private partnerships, and multiple bank loans could finance such projects.

Diplomatic leverage for shared stability and Homogeneity: Sudan must actively host negotiations for a comprehensive Nile navigation and economic corridor that promotes regional prosperity. By encouraging landlocked countries to access the Red Sea through the IWT network. Sudan can create mutual trade interests, turning zero-sum water politics into positive-sum regional benefit.

Flood management systems: To turn the yearly flooding from a natural crisis into a development opportunity, Sudan must invest in advanced water-redirection infrastructures, such as reservoirs and flood management systems. These would channel the floods into arable lands and irrigation networks, thereby enhancing food and water security.

Secure expertise and Sovereign Control: Sudan must structure contracts with foreign partners to ensure they operate strictly under national oversights and standards. These partnerships must include a mandatory transfer of knowledge and technical expertise to Sudanese national professionals, ensuring long term national ownership and dependency.

Mutual Security and Cooperation for Europe: Promoting economic engagement among citizens reduces the unrest and strengthens social cohesion. In this context, the international Community, particularly the European Union has a strategic interest in supporting the development of Sudan's inland waterway initiative to achieve dual effect: in reducing the pressure of irregular migration to Europe and fostering the aspect of international trade through the Nile corridor and Red Sea.

Conclusion:
Transforming the Nile into a strategic inland waterway, transcends the notion of a mere infrastructure project, it represents a pathway to Sudan's long-term security and stability. Drawing lessons from the Danube and Yangtze models, Sudan can turn this natural advantage into an economic lifeline that mitigates conflict and channels the potential of its human capital toward inclusive development. By prioritizing institutional reform, sustainable industrialization and cooperative regional diplomacy, Sudan can transform its greatest natural asset into the genuine driver for peace and resilience in the region.

Article written by: Gehad Ahmed, Intern Analyst, DefSEC Analytics Africa
Specializing in Middle Eastern, North African, and South American affairs, Ms. Ahmed brings a valuable and unique knowledge base that greatly enriches our work at DefSEC. Born and raised in Sudan and currently residing in Turkey, her insights are deeply rooted in lived experience across the MENA region, adding depth and authenticity to her contributions.

Image by: Khartoum the capital of Sudan, where two Niles confluence Photo: Report Garden