Regional Analysis
Horn of Africa
A military helicopter belonging to the African Union peace mission in Somalia (AMISOM) reportedly crashed at Mogadishu Airport on Tuesday, July 2, with eight personnel on board. According to a report by Reuters, the helicopter was engulfed in flames upon crashing. No casualties have been confirmed so far, and the cause of the accident has yet to be established. Eyewitnesses said they heard a blast followed by thick smoke. The mission comprises approximately 11,000 troops deployed in Somalia, a country currently battling one of the most severe insurgencies on the continent. In recent months, the Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab has made significant territorial gains and is advancing toward the capital, Mogadishu.
According to the latest report by the BBC, the downed helicopter belonged to the Ugandan military. Uganda, a landlocked East African country, has a sizable contingent of troops in Somalia under the AMISOM mandate. In previous years, Al-Shabaab has conducted terror attacks in Uganda in retaliation for its military involvement in Somalia. Uganda is also a member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and has prioritized its role in regional security, particularly in Somalia, which is also an IGAD member state.
Additionally, the Somali government has strengthened its military partnerships with various external actors to build its security forces' capacity and enhance its firepower. Somali security forces have coordinated with U.S. forces to conduct airstrikes targeting Islamic State (IS) positions in remote areas. Turkey has played a critical role in recent years by training Somali troops, contributing significantly to the development of a more professional national army. More recently, Egypt has deployed troops to Somalia under a bilateral security agreement with Mogadishu. This move, however, has drawn criticism from Ethiopia. The government in Addis Ababa has expressed strong objections, arguing that the Egyptian military presence in Somalia threatens both Ethiopia’s national interests and the broader stability of the Horn of Africa. Cairo and Mogadishu have rejected these claims, asserting that their security collaboration is purely bilateral and aimed at combating terrorism and stabilizing the region.
West Africa
Mali’s military government has announced that it killed approximately 80 militants from Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), a coalition linked to Al-Qaeda, following a wave of coordinated attacks on military outposts across the country. These recent attacks have been described as increasingly sophisticated and simultaneous, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Malian soldiers. The junta in Bamako has been engaged in an uphill battle against jihadist insurgents for years. Although the 2020 coup occurred amid an already dire security situation, the insurgency has escalated significantly since the military seized power. The wider Sahel region has since been described as the global epicenter of terrorism.
Weeks ago, the Russian private military company Wagner formally withdrew from Mali, following increased international scrutiny. However, sources indicate that Wagner has been replaced by the newly formed Russia Africa Corps, which operates under the direct command of the Russian Defense Ministry. The extent of the new group’s operations remains unclear, but its presence signals continued Russian military influence in the region.
Neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger face similar political and security crises. Both countries, along with Mali, have experienced deadly attacks that have killed hundreds of soldiers in recent months. The three military-led governments have established a regional confederation, known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), in an attempt to bolster cooperation and mutual defense. However, the security benefits of this alliance have yet to materialize in any significant way.
All three junta-led states have extended their transitional mandates by five years, effectively delaying any return to civilian rule. Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to mediate and reintegrate them into the regional bloc have so far been unsuccessful. This political deadlock, combined with escalating violence, has raised alarm among coastal West African nations, who fear that growing insecurity and transnational crimes such as arms smuggling, drug trafficking, and terrorism could spill into their territories.
Southern Africa
The Mozambican military has reported that its forces killed at least seven suspected militants in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. According to official sources, the militants were neutralized in the Quiterajo forest, approximately 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the town of Macomia. The group was allegedly preparing to attack a military position when they were intercepted. Clashes between government forces and insurgents began on Friday and lasted until Sunday. Fears of a broader attack prompted the evacuation of nearby communities.
For years, Mozambican forces have struggled against a violent insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which has disrupted both local livelihoods and large-scale economic projects. The insurgency, affiliated with the Islamic State, has resulted in thousands of deaths and displaced over a million people. One of Africa's largest gas projects, operated by TotalEnergies, was suspended due to security concerns—a major setback for the country’s economic aspirations.
After months of political tension, Mozambique’s political class recently reached an agreement aimed at stabilizing the internal political landscape. This consensus has enabled the government to shift focus toward addressing the worsening security situation in the north. Tackling terrorism in Cabo Delgado is not only a national security priority but also a crucial condition for economic recovery and foreign investment.
Mozambique continues to face high youth unemployment and widespread poverty, despite its vast natural resources, including gas, graphite, coal, and rubies. A positive shift in the security climate could help attract critical investments, especially in extractive industries and infrastructure development—potentially unlocking long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.
Central Africa
The Congolese army (FARDC) has confirmed that it targeted and downed an aircraft near the country's eastern border with Rwanda and Burundi. The plane, reportedly operated by rebel factions, was shot down in South Kivu Province. Rebels claim that the aircraft was delivering humanitarian aid, specifically food supplies, to areas under their control. However, the Congolese military maintains that the aircraft violated Congolese airspace and failed to obtain the necessary permissions. The incident has further escalated tensions in a region already plagued by conflict.
The Congo River Alliance and other local rebel groups have vowed to retaliate, warning of a possible resurgence of violence. This incident comes despite a U.S.-brokered peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, which was intended to de-escalate hostilities. However, the continued violence has cast doubt on the effectiveness of that agreement, with many experts arguing that the situation on the ground remains largely unchanged.
Clashes between rebel factions and pro-government Wazalendo forces persist in several districts across North and South Kivu provinces. Rebel groups have entrenched themselves in these areas and are attempting to establish parallel governance structures. In recent months, they have introduced fiscal policies, imposed local taxes, and even initiated infrastructure projects, including the construction of roads. Disturbingly, several strategic mines—particularly those rich in gold, coltan, and tin—have fallen under their control, allowing them to finance their activities and gain influence among the local population.
The Congolese government faces an increasingly complex challenge: it must deal with the fragmentation of rebel groups, regional power dynamics, and competition over natural resources. Despite international support and repeated peace efforts, the eastern DRC remains a hotbed of insecurity, displacement, and humanitarian crisis.
