In recent days, Al-Shabaab has launched several audacious attacks against the Somali government and multilateral forces. These have claimed a number of lives—both combatants and civilians. On May 28 2023, the group attacked an African Union base in the country. Uganda has confirmed the death of an undisclosed number of its soldiers in Somalia after the attack. It is estimated that the militants involved in the operation were about 800. A couple days later, Somali forces clashed with fighters of the group leading to the death of 17 others. Early on in February, the group launched an attack that killed 10 civilians in Abdias district of Mogadishu.
These attacks have had some worried about a possible resurgence of the once feared militant group that swore allegiance to Al-Qaeda in 2012. The worry is that the group has always found it way back to prominence whenever it had been battered into hiding. In 2011, after Kenya had dislodged the group in its strongholds and AU forces subsequently pressured the pushed it from some urban and semi-urban centres around the country, the militants regrouped and became potent once again. It has been effective in replenishing its human resources and the attraction of more recruits during the same period. Its access to arms coming in through West Asia also kept it sufficiently equipped. With these there has been a general perception of the group’s resilience among security experts.
This founded fears notwithstanding, it appears Al-Shabaab is putting up a fight because it has its back against the wall; and not necessarily a sign of some tactical or operational agility and superiority.
Factors distressing Al-Shabaab
In the last years, the resolve of the Somali government and forces to fight Al-Shabaab has been impressive. The federal government has focused on quality training of forces and retooled the military for a consistent and effective kinetic facet of the fight. This has yielded some results. This is in contrast with the years when Al-Shabaab controlled major cities including Mogadishu and the government had to operate from exile. These are the years Somalia was generally considered a failed state. Currently, the government in Mogadishu, despite its challenges has been effective administratively and technically. The incremental but steady state presence in the country tells a story of a country making effort to be on its feet amidst the insurgency. With a functioning government machinery and commitment to training and equipping forces, Al-Shabaab is currently on the defensive. Improved professionalism of regular forces is making a difference.
The formal involvement of clan-based militia and their political leadership has immensely helped in localising the fight and taken it to Al-Shabaab. Somalia clan system is one of the most notable in the African continent. While the country is ethnically monolithic, clans form the basis of sub-divisions and sub-state identity. For decades, especially since the early 1990s, many of these clans have armed themselves against each other and militants. Some have formed alliances to keep a stronger front. These alliances have sometimes resulted in moves towards autonomy and self-determination. Al-Shabaab has at different times exploited the various clans to its advantage. The decision by the central government to involve the militia is therefore of a strategic significance and operationally positive. This has relatively subsided the effect of Al-Shabaab propaganda that seeks to whip up inter-clan sentiments and grievances. Some of the youth who were often targets of the group’s recruitment efforts are currently fighting in their clan-based militia and cooperating with the government. Where these militia find common security goals with the government, Al-Shabaab is not safe.
Furthermore, the Somali government has found foreign partners that have built consequential military cooperation and coordination with Mogadishu. This has further enhanced quality training of special forces and the supply of effective reconnaissance and combat equipment. Turkey, UAE and the United States have given different forms of assistance to Mogadishu in the fight. Somalia is a vast territory that requires coordinated efforts to fight violent extremism. This cannot be done solely by the government and the militia. The country is still heavily dependent on donor support and significantly limited with its capacity to generate revenue domestically. The financial constraints mean that arms cannot be obtained without serious opportunity costs for the poor country. The presence and support of security partners in Africa and beyond to the government has helped Somali forces with arms and modern technology in fighting Al-Shabaab.
A combination of these and a strong border presence by Kenya and Ethiopia, has put enormous pressure on what have been known as the most potent terror group before others emerged in the Sahel. Kenya and Ethiopia maintain relatively powerful forces that have shown potency in repelling the threats posed by extremists in the past. President William Ruto of Kenya has helped improve relations between his country and Mogadishu. Good relations across the border further hurts Al-Shabaab.
Ironically, the presence of other extremists’ groups in Somalia has further weakened the currency of Al-Shabaab. With an ISIS franchise emerging in Somalia, Al-Shabaab has lost much of the “prestige” is has enjoyed since 2006. Just as Al-Qaeda militants in Sahel West Africa have shown discomfort and even clashed with ISIS affiliates in the region, the presence of an ISIS franchise in Somalia denies it of the “monopoly” it has had for over a decade and this makes it more distressed.
It is no more the only group radicalised youth would want to join. In fact, ISIS franchises across Africa are known to attract the extremely radical and revolutionary youths in extremists’ circles. Its patriarch, Abu Musab Al Zarqawi initiated indiscriminate levels of ruthlessness that has become the hallmark of the group. Al-Shabaab is therefore not only battered, but has become just one of the militant groups in Somalia.
Recent attacks by the group have much to do with its frustration and weakened position rather than any strength regained. The Somali forces have consistent chased and brought down commanders of the group; fighters are being dislodged from their strongholds; and supply lines are being cut by government forces. Special forces are mounting extra pressure by organizing sophisticated attacks against high profile targets.
Way forward.
The Somali government should not panic or abandon a working strategy against battle-hardened Al-Shabaab fighters. They are doing something right and must therefore maintain the pressure on the group. While doing so, the military must be well prepared for counter-attacks—Al-Shabaab will not go down quietly.
It is also important for Somalia to handle the military-militia alliance meticulously to avoid recent happenings in Sudan and Ethiopia where sub-state armed groups are in clashes with the regular armies. Some transitional framework that suits the domestic dynamics must be put in place by security planners of the country in consultation with the political leaders of the groups. This will go a long way to keep the loyalty of the militia to the state and avoid a truncation of the effective cooperation currently happening.
Furthermore, Somali politicians and bureaucratic must uphold the values of transparency and accountability in discharging their duties in a country in transition to stability. In Afghanistan pervasive corruption, nepotism and opaqueness in running the affairs of the state eventually led to its failure. Donor supports and loans that are given to Mogadishu must therefore be manged with best practices.
What this means for organisations and business
Somalia is obviously a high-risk country for businesses and aid agencies that seek to help mitigate the effect of instability and socioeconomic challenges. However, businesses that are established in the capital and surrounding regions where security and state presence is seen are reportedly doing well. Many Somalis from the diaspora have established businesses. Even though the risk is high, investors who take it are likely to reap significant benefits in the long term. The demographics of the country depicts a young population--a good sign for a robust market in the future if stability is ensured. The country’s location along the Indian Ocean and its proximity to the Gulf of Aden further gives it advantage which businesses could gain from in the future.
Agriculture, especially animal husbandry, holds much promise in the country.
For aid organisations, Somalia has always been one of the unsafe places since the early 1990s. However, with the current stability in some areas, aid workers feel relatively safe. Interestingly, for Somalia to rise again and become a fully functioning state aid agencies would have to continue their assistance to the Horn of Africa state in the coming decades.
