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Somalia: emerging from decades of conflict

Oct 6, 2023 /

Author : DefSEC Analytics

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Somalia is located in the Horn of Africa and has a long coastline along the Indian Ocean to the east. The country is characterized by a diverse landscape, including arid plains, mountains, and plateaus. Somalia's geography has made it susceptible to recurring droughts and food shortages. The capital town is Mogadishu, with a population of approximately 15 million (2021 estimate). The country has a total land capacity of 637,657 square kilometers. Its official languages are Somali and Arabic. The official currency for legal tender is the Somali Shilling (SOS).

Somalia's GDP is estimated at 17 billion dollars. According to the AFDB, this is projected to increase by 4% in 2024. Somalia's economy is primarily based on agriculture, livestock, and fishing which accounts for about 40 percent of GDP. The country has a sizable diaspora, and remittances from Somalis living abroad play a significant role in the economy. Estimates suggest that remittance rakes in $1 billion annually accounting for about 25 percent of GDP.

The telecommunications sector has experienced remarkable growth, with mobile phone penetration rates reaching around 65%, generating employment opportunities and driving economic activities. Additionally, trade in the informal sector is widespread. The formal economy has been severely affected by years of conflict and instability. Somalia holds large, untapped reserves of natural resources such as iron ore, uranium, tin bauxite, salt, and natural gas.

Security Issues:
Somalia has a complex history marked by clan-based conflicts and colonial influences. It gained independence from British and Italian colonial rule in 1960, unifying the former British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland territories. The country experienced political turmoil, military rule, and civil war in the late 20th century. Somalia continued to grapple with political instability and conflict. Efforts to establish a functioning federal government have been ongoing, with the support of the international community and the Africa Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

Somalia has experienced decades of conflict and civil war, which has resulted in the displacement of millions of people, the destruction of infrastructure, and a breakdown of law and order. Multiple armed groups, including Al-Shabaab, have been involved in the ongoing conflict. It has been a major security threat in Somalia and the wider East African region. The group has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks, suicide bombings, and assassinations. Apart from Al-Shabaab, other extremist groups and individuals have carried out attacks in Somalia, sometimes with links to international terrorism. Also, the country has unresolved border disputes with neighbouring countries, like Ethiopia and Kenya, which have added to regional tensions and complicated efforts to achieve security and political stability.

Somalia has struggled to establish a stable and effective central government. The country has gone through numerous transitional governments, and even with the establishment of a federal system, there have been challenges in achieving meaningful governance and security reforms. However, foreign interventions and foreign interests in Somalia have sometimes exacerbated the political instability. External actors have provided support to various factions in the country, often furthering the conflict rather than promoting stability.


Verdict:
Ensuring security in Somalia requires a comprehensive approach that addresses political, economic, and social dimensions, as well as effective intelligence and counter-terrorism strategies Education and capacity-building initiatives should be prioritized to equip the population, particularly the youth, with the skills necessary for peaceful coexistence, democracy, and an understanding of the dangers posed by extremist ideologies. With the drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in 2024, the Somali government faces a herculean task in maintaining peace and stability.


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